Webbläsaren som du använder stöds inte av denna webbplats. Alla versioner av Internet Explorer stöds inte längre, av oss eller Microsoft (läs mer här: * https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Var god och använd en modern webbläsare för att ta del av denna webbplats, som t.ex. nyaste versioner av Edge, Chrome, Firefox eller Safari osv.

Default user image.

Wenxin Zhang

Forskare

Default user image.

Projections of thermal growing season indices over China under global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C

Författare

  • Mengge Lu
  • Huaiwei Sun
  • Dong Yan
  • Jie Xue
  • Shanzhen Yi
  • Dongwei Gui
  • Ye Tuo
  • Wenxin Zhang

Summary, in English

Global warming may prolong and intensify the thermal growing season of vegetation. It is not yet clear how the Paris Agreement's long-term temperature goals will affect the thermal growing season of vegetation, particularly crops, in China. Based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) datasets and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 dataset, we have investigated changes in spatiotemporal patterns of four thermal growing season indices (Growing Degree Days, GDD; Length of Growing Season, GSL; the Start of Growing Season, GSS; the End of Growing Season, GSE) over China under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Our results indicate that during the periods which achieve the global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, only 3.82% and 29.15% of the total areas in China have higher warming levels beyond the global warming targets. For warmer RCP scenarios (except RCP2.6), there was a rising trend for GSE, GDD and GSL and a decreasing trend for GSS in China. Many crop regions in China have also shown an advance of GSS, an extension of GSL and an earlier end of GSE under the global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, suggesting that crop planting and harvesting dates need to be adjusted accordingly in order to capture appropriate timing for crop maturity and to achieve a maximum yield.

Avdelning/ar

  • Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap
  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system

Publiceringsår

2021

Språk

Engelska

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Science of the Total Environment

Volym

781

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Elsevier

Ämne

  • Climate Research
  • Physical Geography

Nyckelord

  • Climate change
  • Climate factors
  • Growing season
  • Paris agreement
  • Seasonal variations
  • Vegetation

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 0048-9697