Mats Lindeskog
Postdoc
Assessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leaching
Författare
Summary, in English
In this study, a global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is forced with spatial information (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) 2 level) of land-use intensity change in the form of nitrogen (N) fertilization derived from a model chain which informed the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model. We analysed the combined role of climate change and land-use intensity change for trade-offs between agricultural yield and N leaching in the European Union under two plausible scenarios up until 2040. Furthermore, we assessed both driver importance and uncertainty in future trends based on an alternative land-use intensity dataset derived from an integrated assessment model. LPJ-GUESS simulated an increase in wheat and maize yield but also N leaching for most regions when driven by changes in land-use intensity and climate under RCP 8.5. Under RCP 4.5, N leaching is reduced in 53% of the regions while there is a trade-off in crop productivity. The most important factors influencing yield were CO2 (wheat) and climate (maize), but N application almost equaled these in importance. For N leaching, N application was the most important factor, followed by climate. Therefore, using a constant N application dataset in the absence of future projections has a substantial effect on simulated ecosystem responses, especially for maize yield and N leaching. This study is a first assessment of future N leaching and yield responses based on projections of climate and land-use intensity. It further highlights the importance of accounting for changes in future N applications and land-use intensity in general when evaluating environmental impacts over long time periods.
Avdelning/ar
- Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap
- Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC)
- MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
- BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
Publiceringsår
2017-02-15
Språk
Engelska
Sidor
385-398
Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie
Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment
Volym
239
Dokumenttyp
Artikel i tidskrift
Förlag
Elsevier
Ämne
- Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use
Nyckelord
- Climate change
- Fertilization
- Land-use intensity projections
- LPJ-GUESS
- Nitrogen leaching
- Trade-offs
Status
Published
ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt
- ISSN: 0167-8809