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Wenxin Zhang

Forskare

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Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge

Författare

  • Biqing Zhu
  • Chunjing Qiu
  • Thomas Gasser
  • Philippe Ciais
  • Robin D. Lamboll
  • Ashley P. Ballantyne
  • Jinfeng Chang
  • Nitin Chaudhary
  • Angela V. Gallego-Sala
  • Bertrand Guenet
  • Joseph Holden
  • Fortunat Joos
  • Thomas Kleinen
  • Min Jung Kwon
  • Irina Melnikova
  • Jurek Müller
  • Susan Page
  • Elodie Salmon
  • Carl Friedrich Schleussner
  • Guy Schurgers
  • Gaurav P. Shrivastav
  • Narasinha J. Shurpali
  • Katsumasa Tanaka
  • David Wårlind
  • Sebastian Westermann
  • Yi Xi
  • Wenxin Zhang
  • Yuan Zhang
  • Dan Zhu
Visa allt

Summary, in English

Meeting the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires limiting future carbon emissions, yet current policies make temporarily overshooting the 1.5°C target likely. The potential climate feedback from destabilizing peatlands, storing large amounts of carbon, remains poorly quantified. Using the reduced-complexity Earth System Model OSCAR with an integrated peat carbon module, we found that across various overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed 1.5°C–2.5°C, northern peatlands exhibit net positive feedback, amplifying the overshoot challenge. Warming increases peatlands’ net carbon uptake, but this is largely offset by higher methane emissions. We estimated that for each 1°C increase in peak warming, the positive feedback from peatlands decreases the remaining carbon budget by 37 GtCO2 (22–48 GtCO2). If the 1.5°C temperature target is exceeded, peatlands would increase carbon removal requirement by about 40 GtCO2 (16–60 GtCO2) (8.6%). Our findings highlight the importance of properly accounting for northern peatlands for estimating climate feedbacks, especially under overshoot scenarios.

Avdelning/ar

  • Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC)
  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
  • eSSENCE: The e-Science Collaboration

Publiceringsår

2025-07-02

Språk

Engelska

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

One Earth

Volym

8

Avvikelse

8

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Cell Press

Ämne

  • Climate Science

Aktiv

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 2590-3330