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Lars Eklundh

Professor

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Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies

Författare

  • Sergio M. Vicente‑Serrano
  • Carmelo Juez
  • Vera Potopová
  • Boris Boincean
  • Conor Murphy
  • Fernando Domínguez-Castro
  • Lars Eklundh
  • Dhais Peña-Angulo
  • Ivan Noguera
  • Hongxiao Jin
  • Tobias Conradt
  • Ricardo Garcia-Herrera
  • Jose Manuel Garrido-Perez
  • David Barriopedro
  • José María Gutiérrez
  • Maialen Iturbide
  • Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz
  • Ahmed El Kenawy

Summary, in English

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950–2020 and 1850–2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950–2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970–2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.

Avdelning/ar

  • Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap
  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • LU profilområde: Naturbaserade framtidslösningar
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system

Publiceringsår

2024-08-01

Språk

Engelska

Sidor

144-161

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

Volym

1538

Issue

1

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Wiley-Blackwell

Ämne

  • Agricultural Science

Nyckelord

  • climate change
  • crop yields
  • global warming
  • Republic of Moldova

Aktiv

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 0077-8923