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photo of Zheng Duan on Lund webpage

Zheng Duan

Associate senior lecturer

photo of Zheng Duan on Lund webpage

Spatial-temporal differentiation and influencing factors of carbon emission trajectory in Chinese cities - A case study of 247 prefecture-level cities

Author

  • Xinlian Yang
  • Ke Jin
  • Zheng Duan
  • Yuhe Gao
  • Yanwei Sun
  • Chao Gao

Summary, in English

Cities, where human energy activities and greenhouse gas emissions are concentrated, contribute significantly to alleviating the impacts of global climate change. Utilizing the China Carbon Emissions Accounting Database (CEADs) to provide carbon dioxide emission inventories for urban areas in China at the prefecture level, this study closely examines the historical evolution trajectories of carbon emissions across 247 urban units from 2005 to 2019. The logarithmic cubic function model was employed to simulate these trajectories, evaluating urban emission peaks and classifying the different carbon emission trajectories. Further, the Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression model was employed to explore spatiotemporal traits and essential variables that impact the variations in carbon emissions among four identified trajectory types. Our results showed that Chinese urban carbon emission trajectories can be classified into four categories: a) peaking emissions, b) fluctuating growth, c) continuous growth, and d) passive decline. Specifically, 43 cities, primarily in North China, proactively attained their emission peak post-2010, driven by the reduction in secondary industry and energy intensity. 90 cities, largely industrial hubs in the southeast coast and inland, reached an emission plateau around 2015, exhibiting fluctuating growth due to dependencies on secondary industries. 101 cities, predominantly located in western and central regions, demonstrated a clear upward trend in carbon emissions, propelled by rapid urbanization and heavy industry-oriented economic development. Lastly, 13 cities, typically in the northeastern and southwestern regions, experienced a passive decline in carbon emissions, attributable to resource depletion or economic downturns. It is evident that China's city-level carbon peaking has demonstrated some effectiveness, yet considerable progress is still required.

Department/s

  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system

Publishing year

2024-06

Language

English

Publication/Series

Science of the Total Environment

Volume

928

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Elsevier

Topic

  • Environmental Sciences

Keywords

  • Carbon emission trajectory
  • Influencing factors
  • Spatial-temporal differentiation
  • Urbanization

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0048-9697