Martin Sykes
Professor emeritus
Incorporating the effects of changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on water availability in plant habitat models
Author
Summary, in English
The direct effects of CO2 level changes on plant water availability are usually ignored in plant habitat models. We compare traditional proxies for water availability with changes in soil water (fAWC) predicted by a process-based ecosystem model, which simulates changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including CO2 physiological effects. We modelled current and future habitats of 108 European tree species using ensemble forecasting, comprising six habitat models, two model evaluation methods and two climate change scenarios. The fAWC models' projections are generally more conservative. Potential habitats shrink significantly less for boreo-alpine and alpine species. Changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on plant water availability should therefore be taken into account in plant habitat change projections.
Department/s
- Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Publishing year
2008
Language
English
Pages
556-559
Publication/Series
Biology letters
Volume
4
Issue
5
Document type
Journal article
Publisher
Royal Society Publishing
Topic
- Physical Geography
Keywords
- ensemble forecasting
- BIOMOD
- soil water content
- CO2 effect
- habitat models
- climate change
Status
Published
ISBN/ISSN/Other
- ISSN: 1744-9561