The browser you are using is not supported by this website. All versions of Internet Explorer are no longer supported, either by us or Microsoft (read more here: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Please use a modern browser to fully experience our website, such as the newest versions of Edge, Chrome, Firefox or Safari etc.

jing tang profile picture

Jing Tang

Researcher

jing tang profile picture

The Advancement in Spring Vegetation Phenology in the Northern Hemisphere Will Reverse After 2060 Under Future Moderate Warming Scenarios

Author

  • Yunhua Mo
  • Shouzhi Chen
  • Zhaofei Wu
  • Jing Tang
  • Yongshuo Fu

Summary, in English

Global warming has largely advanced spring vegetation phenology, which has subsequently affected terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, further shifts in vegetation phenology under future climate change remain unclear. We estimated the start of the growing season (SOS) by applying multiple extraction methods based on the NDVI3g data set, and then parameterized and evaluated 11 spring vegetation phenology models that included chilling, forcing, and the photoperiod. Based on scenario data from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) derived from eight climate models, future vegetation phenology was predicted using the phenology models. Results showed that all the phenology models performed better than the NULL model (mean of the SOS), with the performance of one-phase models broadly matching that of two-phase models, although the best models varied by vegetation type. The spatial pattern of simulated SOS was similar among the models, and it explained >75% of the variation. Based on the mean predicted SOS, we found that spring vegetation phenology will continue to advance under strong warming conditions (SSP245 and SSP585), but that the trend of advance will reverse at around 2060 under the SSP126 scenario. The continued trend in SOS advance is likely related to rapid forcing fulfillment under stronger warming conditions. However, under moderate warming, chilling might be reduced and it might require longer to compensate for higher forcing, which ultimately would result in SOS delay. Our findings highlight that trends will likely change under different warming conditions, potentially causing widespread impact on species interaction, biodiversity, and ecosystem function.

Department/s

  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
  • LTH Profile Area: Aerosols

Publishing year

2024-03

Language

English

Publication/Series

Earth's Future

Volume

12

Issue

3

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

John Wiley & Sons Inc.

Topic

  • Physical Geography

Keywords

  • climate change
  • phenology model
  • reversed trend
  • spring phenology
  • temporal changes

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 2328-4277