Plant Hydraulic Controls of Tropical Phenology: Insights from an Earth System Modelling Perspective

In addition to being impacted by climate change, ecosystems also affect local and regional climates through vegetation–climate feedback processes. This study will deepen our understanding of the resilience and vulnerability of tropical ecosystems to global warming, with potential implications for improving natural resource management among local forestry stakeholders

Hydraulic traits and ecophysiological processes regulate plant responses to climatic extremes such as heatwaves and droughts. However, most Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs) rely on simplified empirical drought-phenology and plant water stress schemes, neglecting post-stress recovery of the damaged soil–plant–atmosphere continuum (SPAC), which limits model performance under extreme events.

By integrating hydraulic architecture into state-of-the-art DGVMs and utilizing hydraulic trait datasets, this project aims to develop a hydraulically driven phenology scheme for tropical drought-deciduous forests within LPJ-GUESS, including leaf shedding processes during the dry season as well as metabolic and hydraulic repair processes after drought. Furthermore, we will assess phenological sensitivity and forest resilience under extreme climate scenarios and evaluate through vegetation–climate feedback by coupling the improved LPJ-GUESS with an Earth System Model, quantifying impacts on climate extremes and carbon cycle dynamics under projected future conditions.