Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia

Summary, in English

An integrated understanding of the biogeochemical consequences of climate extremes and land use changes is needed to constrain land-surface feedbacks to atmospheric CO₂ from associated climate change. Past assessments of the global carbon balance have shown particularly high uncertainty in Southeast Asia. Here, we use a combination of model ensembles to show that intensified land use change made Southeast Asia a strong source of CO₂ from the 1980s to 1990s, whereas the region was close to carbon neutral in the 2000s due to an enhanced CO₂ fertilization effect and absence of moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Our findings suggest that despite ongoing deforestation, CO₂ emissions were substantially decreased during the 2000s, largely owing to milder climate that restores photosynthetic capacity and suppresses peat and deforestation fire emissions. The occurrence of strong El Niño events after 2009 suggests that the region has returned to conditions of increased vulnerability of carbon stocks.

• Author: Masayuki Kondo; Kazuhito Ichii; Prabir K. Patra; Joseph G. Canadell; Benjamin Poulter; Stephen Sitch; Leonardo Calle; Yi Y. Liu; Albert I.J.M. Van Dijk; Tazu Saeki; Nobuko Saigusa; Pierre Friedlingstein; Almut Arneth; Anna Harper; Atul K. Jain; Etsushi Kato; Charles Koven; Fang Li; Thomas A.M. Pugh; Sönke Zaehle; Andy Wiltshire; Frederic Chevallier; Takashi Maki; Takashi Nakamura; Yosuke Niwa; Christian Rödenbeck
• Publishing year: 2018-12-01
• Language: English
• Publication/Series: Nature Communications
• Volume: 9
• Issue: 1
• Links: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03374-x
• Document type: Journal article
• Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
• Topic: Environmental Sciences
• Status: Published
• ISBN/ISSN/Other: ISSN: 2041-1723