Your browser has javascript turned off or blocked. This will lead to some parts of our website to not work properly or at all. Turn on javascript for best performance.

The browser you are using is not supported by this website. All versions of Internet Explorer are no longer supported, either by us or Microsoft (read more here: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Please use a modern browser to fully experience our website, such as the newest versions of Edge, Chrome, Firefox or Safari etc.

Default user image.

Anna Maria Jönsson

Professor

Default user image.

Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the activity and voltinism of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus

Author

  • Anna Maria Jönsson
  • Gustaf Appelberg
  • Susanne Harding
  • Lars Bärring

Summary, in English

The spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is one of the major insect pests of mature Norway spruce forests. In this study, a model describing the temperature-dependent thresholds for swarming activity and temperature requirement for development from egg to adult was driven by transient regional climate scenario data for Sweden, covering the period of 1961-2100 for three future climate change scenarios (SRES A2, A1B and B2). During the 20th century, the weather supported the production of one bark beetle generation per year, except in the north-western mountainous parts of Sweden where the climate conditions were too harsh. A warmer climate may sustain a viable population also in the mountainous part; however, the distributional range of I. typographus may be restricted by the migration speed of Norway spruce. Modelling suggests that an earlier timing of spring swarming and fulfilled development of the first generation will significantly increase the frequency of summer swarming. Model calculations suggest that the spruce bark beetle will be able to initiate a second generation in South Sweden during 50% of the years around the mid century. By the end of the century, when temperatures during the bark beetle activity period are projected to have increased by 2.4-3.8 degrees C, a second generation will be initiated in South Sweden in 63-81% of the years. The corresponding figures are 16-33% for Mid Sweden, and 1-6% for North Sweden. During the next decades, one to two generations per year are predicted in response to temperature, and the northern distribution limit for the second generation will vary. Our study addresses questions applicable to sustainable forest management, suggesting that adequate countermeasures require monitoring of regional differences in timing of swarming and development of I. typographus, and planning of control operations during summer periods with large populations of bark beetles.

Department/s

  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science

Publishing year

2009

Language

English

Pages

486-499

Publication/Series

Global Change Biology

Volume

15

Issue

2

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Wiley-Blackwell

Topic

  • Physical Geography

Keywords

  • forest damage
  • temperature
  • Sweden
  • impact modelling

Status

Published

Project

  • Climate Initiative

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1354-1013