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Wenxin Zhang

Researcher

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Modeling China's terrestrial ecosystem gross primary productivity with BEPS model : Parameter sensitivity analysis and model calibration

Author

  • Xiuli Xing
  • Mousong Wu
  • Wenxin Zhang
  • Weimin Ju
  • Torbern Tagesson
  • Wei He
  • Songhan Wang
  • Jun Wang
  • Lu Hu
  • Shu Yuan
  • Tingting Zhu
  • Xiaorong Wang
  • Youhua Ran
  • Sien Li
  • Chunyu Wang
  • Fei Jiang
Show all

Summary, in English

Terrestrial ecosystems are the largest sink for carbon, and their ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) regulates variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Current process-based ecosystem models used for estimating GPP are subject to large uncertainties due to poorly constrained parameter values. In this study, we implemented a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on parameters in the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) considering the parameters’ second-order impacts. We also applied the generalized likelihood estimation (GLUE) method, which is flexible for a multi-parameter calibration, to optimize the GPP simulation by BEPS for 10 sites covering 7 plant functional types (PFT) over China. Our optimized results significantly reduced the uncertainty of the simulated GPP over all the sites by 17 % to 82 % and showed that the GPP is sensitive to not only the photosynthesis-related parameters but also the parameters related to the soil water uptake as well as to the energy balance. The optimized GPP across South China showed that the mix forest, shrub, and grass have a higher GPP and are more controlled by the soil water availability. This study showed that the GLUE method together with the GSA scheme could constrain the ecosystem model well when simulating GPP across multiple ecosystems and provide a reasonable estimate of the spatial and temporal distribution of the ecosystem GPP over China. We call for more observations from more sites, as well as data on plant traits, to be collected in China in order to better constrain ecosystem carbon cycle modeling and understand its response to climate change.

Department/s

  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system

Publishing year

2023-12-15

Language

English

Publication/Series

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Volume

343

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Elsevier

Topic

  • Climate Research
  • Physical Geography
  • Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Keywords

  • Ecosystem modeling
  • Global sensitivity analysis
  • Gross primary productivity
  • Satellite-data-driven
  • Uncertainty analysis

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0168-1923