The browser you are using is not supported by this website. All versions of Internet Explorer are no longer supported, either by us or Microsoft (read more here: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Please use a modern browser to fully experience our website, such as the newest versions of Edge, Chrome, Firefox or Safari etc.

Default user image.

Wenxin Zhang

Researcher

Default user image.

Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)

Author

  • Mirseid Akperov
  • Annette Rinke
  • Igor I. Mokhov
  • Vladimir A. Semenov
  • Mariya Parfenova
  • Heidrun Matthes
  • Muralidhar Adakudlu
  • Fredrik Boberg
  • Jens H. Christensen
  • Mariya Dembitskaya
  • Klaus Dethloff
  • Xavier Fettweis
  • Oliver Gutjahr
  • Günther Heinemann
  • Torben Koenigk
  • Nikolay V. Koldunov
  • René Laprise
  • Ruth Mottram
  • Oumarou Nikiéma
  • Dmitry Sein
  • Stefan Sobolowski
  • Katja Winger
  • Wenxin Zhang
Show all

Summary, in English

Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter (DJF) and a decrease in summer (JJA) to the end of the 21st century. However, in one half of the RCMs, cyclones become weaker and substantially smaller in winter and deeper and larger in summer. RCMs as well as GCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency over the Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, north of Greenland, Canadian Archipelago, and a decrease over the Nordic Seas, Kara and Beaufort Seas and over the sub-arctic continental regions in winter. In summer, the models simulate an increase of cyclone frequency over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea and a decrease over the Norwegian and Kara Seas by the end of the 21st century. The decrease is also found over the high-latitude continental areas, in particular, over east Siberia and Alaska. The sensitivity of the RCMs' projections to the boundary conditions and model physics is estimated. In general, different lateral boundary conditions from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM projections than the differences in RCMs' setup and/or physics.

Department/s

  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system

Publishing year

2019

Language

English

Publication/Series

Global and Planetary Change

Volume

182

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Elsevier

Topic

  • Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
  • Climate Research

Keywords

  • Arctic
  • Cyclone activity
  • Climate change
  • Regional climate models
  • CORDEX

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0921-8181