The browser you are using is not supported by this website. All versions of Internet Explorer are no longer supported, either by us or Microsoft (read more here: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Please use a modern browser to fully experience our website, such as the newest versions of Edge, Chrome, Firefox or Safari etc.

Default user image.

Wenxin Zhang

Researcher

Default user image.

Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios

Author

  • Bingqian Zhao
  • Huaiwei Sun
  • Dong Yan
  • Guanghui Wei
  • Ye Tuo
  • Wenxin Zhang

Summary, in English

Study region: The Kaidu River Basin (KRB) is located on the central southern slope of the Tianshan Mountain in Northwest China. Study focus: This work aimed to assess changes and main drivers of snowmelt-driven runoff in KRB associated with three future climate scenarios. Six versions of the “Cemaneige” snowmelt module embedded in the hydrological model “GR4J” were calibrated and evaluated. The bias-corrected climate datasets from CMIP5 Models were used to drive the optimal snowmelt-hydrological model for runoff prediction. The factors that lead to runoff variations were also assessed. New hydrological insights: The significant declining trends of runoff were only predicted in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The declining trends of runoff were found in all the seasons. For the annual and summer runoff, compared to the historical period, both the RCP2.6 and RCP 4.5 periods showed a decline in the mid-century and a rise in the end-century; however, RCP8.5 showed a continuous decline during this period. Precipitation and evapotranspiration were ranked as the two most important factors regulating future runoff variations in all RCPs. In contrast, snowmelt timing is the second factor in the historical period, and its importance decreases in the warmer RCP scenarios. These results highlighted that the importance of snowmelt and snowmelt timing to the future runoff depends on the runoff responses to the trajectory of future changes in temperature and precipitation.

Department/s

  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system

Publishing year

2021-12

Language

English

Publication/Series

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

Volume

38

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Elsevier

Topic

  • Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
  • Physical Geography

Keywords

  • China
  • Hydrological modeling
  • ISIMIP2b
  • Snowmelt timing
  • Tarim River Basin

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 2214-5818