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Marko Scholze

Senior lecturer

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Constraining predictions of the carbon cycle using data

Author

  • P. J. Rayner
  • E. Koffi
  • M. Scholze
  • T. Kaminski
  • J. L. Dufresne

Summary, in English

We use a carbon-cycle data assimilation system to estimate the terrestrial biospheric CO2 flux until 2090. The terrestrial sink increases rapidly and the increase is stronger in the presence of climate change. Using a linearized model, we calculate the uncertainty in the flux owing to uncertainty in model parameters. The uncertainty is large and is dominated by the impact of soil moisture on heterotrophic respiration. We show that this uncertainty can be greatly reduced by constraining the model parameters with two decades of atmospheric measurements.

Publishing year

2011-05-28

Language

English

Pages

1955-1966

Publication/Series

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science

Volume

369

Issue

1943

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Royal Society Publishing

Topic

  • Physical Geography
  • Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources

Keywords

  • Carbon cycle
  • Data assimilation
  • Terrestrial uptake

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1364-503X