Enhancing carbon sinks in China using a spatially-optimized forestation strategy

Summary, in English

China plans expanding 49.5 million hectares of new forests by 2050 to strengthen carbon sequestration. However, estimates of the carbon benefits from this expansion rarely consider the effect of 'forest edge', where tree mortality increases under intensified stress from wind, drought, pests, and fire. Here we show that proximity to forest edges substantially reduces biomass carbon storage, and develop a spatial optimization strategy that prioritizes planting in areas that minimize edge effects. Our projections show that forestation optimized for edge effects results in a 51% increase in carbon gain (986 ± 22 Tg by 2060), with approximately half of the total gain driven by reduced edge effects. These findings demonstrate that ignoring edge effects can significantly overestimate carbon sink potential and highlight spatially optimized forestation as a pathway to maximize climate mitigation and ecological benefits.

• Author: Yanli Dong; Zhen Yu; Thomas Pugh; Evgenios Agathokleous; Fangmin Zhang; Stephen Sitch; Weibin You; Wangya Han; Stefan Olin; Shirong Liu; Guoyi Zhou; Pedro Cabral; Pengsen Sun
• Department/s: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences (MGeo); LU Profile Area: Nature-based future solutions; MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system; BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate; Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science; eSSENCE: The e-Science Collaboration
• Publishing year: 2026-01-12
• Language: English
• Publication/Series: Nature Communications
• Volume: 17
• Links: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68288-5
• Document type: Journal article
• Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
• Topic: Physical Geography; Climate Science
• Keywords: China; Carbon Sequestration; Forests; Biomass; Trees/metabolism; Forestry/methods; Carbon/metabolism; Climate Change
• Status: Published
• ISBN/ISSN/Other: ISSN: 2041-1723