Webbläsaren som du använder stöds inte av denna webbplats. Alla versioner av Internet Explorer stöds inte längre, av oss eller Microsoft (läs mer här: * https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Var god och använd en modern webbläsare för att ta del av denna webbplats, som t.ex. nyaste versioner av Edge, Chrome, Firefox eller Safari osv.

Petter Pilesjö

Petter Pilesjö

Professor

Petter Pilesjö

Identification of Visceral Leishmaniasis-Susceptible Areas using Spatial Modelling in Southern Caucasus

Författare

  • Mohamadreza Rajabi
  • Petter Pilesjö
  • A Bazmani
  • A Mansourian

Summary, in English

This study explores the application of spatial modelling techniques to generate susceptibility maps for a neglected zoonotic disease, visceral leishmaniasis (VL), in an endemic area in southern Caucasus that includes Iran, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The social and physical environment of southern Caucasus has been mainly characterized by the presence of several factors that are strongly associated with VL, which has caused a significant number of infections during the past decade. Three popular spatial modelling techniques, consisting of the weights of evidence, logistic regression and fuzzy logic methods, were evaluated and trained using a study area in north-western Iran where an inventory of highly infected areas and high-quality evidential factors was available. Model performance was assessed using the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) approach. According to the results of these assessments, the fuzzy logic method with γ = 0.5 was chosen for the prediction of VL incidence in southern Caucasus. The susceptibility map generated using the fuzzy logic method indicated that VL followed a spatial pattern at the conjunction of the three countries, which suggests that the prevalence of VL in southern Caucasus is socio-ecologically dependent.

Avdelning/ar

  • Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap
  • Centrum för geografiska informationssystem (GIS-centrum)
  • Centrum för Mellanösternstudier
  • MECW: The Middle East in the Contemporary World

Publiceringsår

2016-12-27

Språk

Engelska

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Zoonoses and Public Health

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Wiley-Blackwell

Ämne

  • Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
  • Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
  • Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 1863-1959