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Markku Rummukainen

Professor

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Evaluation of climate models

Författare

  • Gregory Flato
  • Jochem Marotzke
  • Babatunde Abiodun
  • Pascale Braconnot
  • Sin Chan Chou
  • William Collins
  • Peter Cox
  • Fatima Driouech
  • Seita Emori
  • Veronika Eyring
  • Chris Forest
  • Peter Gleckler
  • Eric Guilyardi
  • Christian Jakob
  • Vladimir Kattsov
  • Chris Reason
  • Markku Rummukainen
Visa allt

Redaktör

  • Thomas F. Stocker
  • Dahe Qin
  • Gian-Kasper Plattner
  • Melinda M.B. Tignor
  • Simon K. Allen
  • Judith Boschung
  • Alexander Nauels
  • Yu Xia
  • Vincent Bex
  • Pauline M. Midgley

Summary, in English

Climate models have continued to be developed and improved since the AR4, and many models have been extended into Earth System models by including the representation of biogeochemical cycles important to climate change These models allow for policy-relevant calculations such as the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions compatible with a specified climate stabilization target. In addition, the range of climate variables and processes that have been evaluated has greatly expanded, and differences between models and observations are increasingly quantified using 'performance metrics'. In this chapter, model evaluation covers simulation of the mean climate, of historical climate change, of variability on multiple time scales and of regional modes of variability. This evaluation is based on recent internationally coordinated model experiments, including simulations of historic and paleo climate, specialized experiments designed to provide insight into key climate processes and feedbacks and regional climate downscaling. Figure 9.44 provides an overview of model capabilities as assessed in this chapter, including improvements, or lack thereof, relative to models assessed in the AR4. The chapter concludes with an assessment of recent work connecting model performance to the detection and attribution of climate change as well as to future projections. The ability of climate models to simulate surface temperature has improved in many, though not all, important aspects relative to the generation of models assessed in the AR4.

Avdelning/ar

  • Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science

Publiceringsår

2013

Språk

Engelska

Sidor

741-866

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Dokumenttyp

Kapitel samlingsverk

Förlag

Cambridge University Press

Ämne

  • Climate Science

Nyckelord

  • SDG 13 - Climate Action

Aktiv

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISBN: 978-1-107-05799-9
  • ISBN: 978-1-107-66182-0
  • ISBN: 978-1-107-41532-4