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David Wårlind

Forskare

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Grasslands may be more reliable carbon sinks than forests in California

Författare

  • Pawlok Dass
  • Benjamin Z. Houlton
  • Yingping Wang
  • David Warlind

Summary, in English

Although natural terrestrial ecosystems have sequestered ∼25% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the long-term sustainability of this key ecosystem service is under question. Forests have traditionally been viewed as robust carbon (C) sinks; however, extreme heat-waves, drought and wildfire have increased tree mortality, particularly in widespread semi-arid regions, which account for ∼41% of Earth's land surface. Using a set of modeling experiments, we show that California grasslands are a more resilient C sink than forests in response to 21st century changes in climate, with implications for designing climate-smart Cap and Trade offset policies. The resilience of grasslands to rising temperatures, drought and fire, coupled with the preferential banking of C to belowground sinks, helps to preserve sequestered terrestrial C and prevent it from re-entering the atmosphere. In contrast, California forests appear unable to cope with unmitigated global changes in the climate, switching from substantial C sinks to C sources by at least the mid-21st century. These results highlight the inherent risk of relying on forest C offsets in the absence of management interventions to avoid substantial fire-driven C emissions. On the other hand, since grassland environments, including tree-sparse rangelands, appear more capable of maintaining C sinks in 21st century, such ecosystems should be considered as an alternative C offset to climate-vulnerable forests. The further development of climate-smart approaches in California's carbon marketplace could serve as an example to offset programs around the world, particularly those expanding into widespread arid and semi-arid regions.

Avdelning/ar

  • Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap
  • eSSENCE: The e-Science Collaboration
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate

Publiceringsår

2018

Språk

Engelska

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Environmental Research Letters

Volym

13

Issue

7

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

IOP Publishing

Ämne

  • Climate Research
  • Physical Geography

Nyckelord

  • Cap
  • Carbon cycle
  • Climate change
  • Drought
  • Forest
  • Grassland
  • Trade
  • Wildfire

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 1748-9326