Anna Maria Jönsson
Prefekt
New satellite-based estimates show significant trends in spring phenology and complex sensitivities to temperature and precipitation at northern European latitudes
Författare
Summary, in English
Recent climate warming has altered plant phenology at northern European latitudes, but conclusions regarding the spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate are still challenging as quantitative estimates are strongly diverging. To generate consistent estimates of broad-scale spatially continuous spring plant phenology at northern European latitudes (> 50° N) from 2000 to 2016, we used a novel vegetation index, the plant phenology index (PPI), derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. To obtain realistic and strong estimates, the phenology trends and their relationships with temperature and precipitation over the past 17 years were analyzed using a panel data method. We found that in the studied region the start of the growing season (SOS) has on average advanced by 0.30 day year
−1
. The SOS showed an overall advancement rate of 2.47 day °C
−1
to spring warming, and 0.18 day cm
−1
to decreasing precipitation in spring. The previous winter and summer temperature had important effects on the SOS but were spatially heterogeneous. Overall, the onset of SOS was delayed 0.66 day °C
−1
by winter warming and 0.56 day °C
−1
by preceding summer warming. The precipitation in winter and summer influenced the SOS in a relatively weak and complex manner. The findings indicate rapid recent phenological changes driven by combined seasonal climates in northern Europe. Previously unknown spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate drivers are presented that improve our capacity to understand and foresee future climate effects on vegetation.
Avdelning/ar
- Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap
- BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
- Matematisk statistik
- MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
- eSSENCE: The e-Science Collaboration
Publiceringsår
2019-02-25
Språk
Engelska
Sidor
763-775
Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie
International Journal of Biometeorology
Volym
63
Issue
6
Dokumenttyp
Artikel i tidskrift
Förlag
Springer
Ämne
- Ecology
- Physical Geography
Nyckelord
- Climate sensitivity
- Northern European latitudes
- Plant phenology index (PPI)
- Remote sensing
- Spring phenology trend
Aktiv
Published
ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt
- ISSN: 0020-7128