Andreas Persson

Subarctic ecosystems are predicted to experience the fastest responses to climate change on the planet, with dramatically altered vegetation patterns, frost dynamics and hydrological flow paths. The resulting change in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export to river systems is poorly known, but reports of rising DOC in northern surface waters have led to widespread speculations on a possible climate-induced freshwater ‘brownification’. In this study we explore the possibility of using the Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI) together with easily available topographical indices to model the DOC release into first-order streams, focusing on a subarctic area of Sweden (Stordalen) with discontinuous permafrost. We utilise earth observation data in predicting changes in DOC export, and further combine these efforts with distributed modeling of hydrological flow paths to generate maps of stream DOC in a palsa landscape. Our preliminary results point to a largely unexplored potential of using GIS and Remote Sensing analysis to reconstruct and project the DOC export from subarctic catchments and its response to climate change.