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The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment : Global gridded crop model simulations under uniform changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen levels (protocol version 1.0)

Author:
  • James A. Franke
  • Christoph Müller
  • Joshua Elliott
  • Alex C. Ruane
  • Jonas Jägermeyr
  • Juraj Balkovic
  • Philippe Ciais
  • Marie Dury
  • Pete D. Falloon
  • Christian Folberth
  • Louis François
  • Tobias Hank
  • Munir Hoffmann
  • R. Cesar Izaurralde
  • Ingrid Jacquemin
  • Curtis Jones
  • Nikolay Khabarov
  • Marian Koch
  • Michelle Li
  • Wenfeng Liu
  • Stefan Olin
  • Meridel Phillips
  • Thomas A.M. Pugh
  • Ashwan Reddy
  • Xuhui Wang
  • Karina Williams
  • Florian Zabel
  • Elisabeth J. Moyer
Publishing year: 2020-05-18
Language: English
Pages: 2315-2336
Publication/Series: Geoscientific Model Development
Volume: 13
Issue: 5
Document type: Journal article
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH

Abstract english

Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Process-based crop models, which represent plant physiological and soil processes, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate and management conditions not sampled in the historical record and new locations to which cultivation may shift. However, process-based crop models differ in many critical details, and their responses to different interacting factors remain only poorly understood. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, an activity of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to provide a systematic parameter sweep focused on climate change factors and their interaction with overall soil fertility, to allow both evaluating model behavior and emulating model responses in impact assessment tools. In this paper we describe the GGCMI Phase 2 experimental protocol and its simulation data archive. A total of 12 crop models simulate five crops with systematic uniform perturbations of historical climate, varying CO2, temperature, water supply, and applied nitrogen ("CTWN") for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and a second set of simulations represents a type of adaptation by allowing the adjustment of growing season length. We present some crop yield results to illustrate general characteristics of the simulations and potential uses of the GGCMI Phase 2 archive. For example, in cases without adaptation, modeled yields show robust decreases to warmer temperatures in almost all regions, with a nonlinear dependence that means yields in warmer baseline locations have greater temperature sensitivity. Inter-model uncertainty is qualitatively similar across all the four input dimensions but is largest in high-latitude regions where crops may be grown in the future.

Keywords

  • Climate Research
  • Water Engineering

Other

Published
  • ISSN: 1991-959X
E-mail: stefan [dot] olin [at] nateko [dot] lu [dot] se

Postdoctoral fellow

Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science

+46 46 222 38 30

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Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Lund University
Sölvegatan 12
S-223 62 Lund
Sweden

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