The browser you are using is not supported by this website. All versions of Internet Explorer are no longer supported, either by us or Microsoft (read more here: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Please use a modern browser to fully experience our website, such as the newest versions of Edge, Chrome, Firefox or Safari etc.

Default user image.

Markku Rummukainen

Professor

Default user image.

Evaluation of climate models

Author

  • Gregory Flato
  • Jochem Marotzke
  • Babatunde Abiodun
  • Pascale Braconnot
  • Sin Chan Chou
  • William Collins
  • Peter Cox
  • Fatima Driouech
  • Seita Emori
  • Veronika Eyring
  • Chris Forest
  • Peter Gleckler
  • Eric Guilyardi
  • Christian Jakob
  • Vladimir Kattsov
  • Chris Reason
  • Markku Rummukainen
Show all

Editor

  • Thomas F. Stocker
  • Dahe Qin
  • Gian-Kasper Plattner
  • Melinda M.B. Tignor
  • Simon K. Allen
  • Judith Boschung
  • Alexander Nauels
  • Yu Xia
  • Vincent Bex
  • Pauline M. Midgley

Summary, in English

Climate models have continued to be developed and improved since the AR4, and many models have been extended into Earth System models by including the representation of biogeochemical cycles important to climate change These models allow for policy-relevant calculations such as the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions compatible with a specified climate stabilization target. In addition, the range of climate variables and processes that have been evaluated has greatly expanded, and differences between models and observations are increasingly quantified using 'performance metrics'. In this chapter, model evaluation covers simulation of the mean climate, of historical climate change, of variability on multiple time scales and of regional modes of variability. This evaluation is based on recent internationally coordinated model experiments, including simulations of historic and paleo climate, specialized experiments designed to provide insight into key climate processes and feedbacks and regional climate downscaling. Figure 9.44 provides an overview of model capabilities as assessed in this chapter, including improvements, or lack thereof, relative to models assessed in the AR4. The chapter concludes with an assessment of recent work connecting model performance to the detection and attribution of climate change as well as to future projections. The ability of climate models to simulate surface temperature has improved in many, though not all, important aspects relative to the generation of models assessed in the AR4.

Department/s

  • Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science

Publishing year

2013-01-01

Language

English

Pages

741-866

Publication/Series

Climate Change 2013 : The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Document type

Book chapter

Publisher

Cambridge University Press

Topic

  • Climate Science

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISBN: 978-1-107-41532-4
  • ISBN: 978-1-107-05799-9
  • ISBN: 978-1-107-66182-0