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Hongxiao Jin

Hongxiao Jin

Researcher

Hongxiao Jin

Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies

Author

  • Sergio M. Vicente‑Serrano
  • Carmelo Juez
  • Vera Potopová
  • Boris Boincean
  • Conor Murphy
  • Fernando Domínguez-Castro
  • Lars Eklundh
  • Dhais Peña-Angulo
  • Ivan Noguera
  • Hongxiao Jin
  • Tobias Conradt
  • Ricardo Garcia-Herrera
  • Jose Manuel Garrido-Perez
  • David Barriopedro
  • José María Gutiérrez
  • Maialen Iturbide
  • Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz
  • Ahmed El Kenawy
Show all

Summary, in English

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950–2020 and 1850–2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950–2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970–2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.

Department/s

  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • LU Profile Area: Nature-based future solutions
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system

Publishing year

2024-08-01

Language

English

Pages

144-161

Publication/Series

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

Volume

1538

Issue

1

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Wiley-Blackwell

Topic

  • Agricultural Science

Keywords

  • climate change
  • crop yields
  • global warming
  • Republic of Moldova

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0077-8923