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Anna Maria Jönsson

Professor

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Guess the impact of Ips typographus – An ecosystem modelling approach for simulating bark beetle outbreaks

Author

  • Anna Maria Jönsson
  • L.M. Schroeder
  • Fredrik Lagergren
  • Olle Anderbrant
  • Benjamin Smith

Summary, in English

Spruce bark beetle outbreaks are common in Norway spruce forests following windstorm damage, due to ample availability of brood material. The realization of an outbreak depends on factors regulating the Ips typographus population dynamics, such as weather conditions and salvage cutting. In this study, we take an ecosystem modelling approach to analyse the influence of multiple environmental factors on the risk for I. typographus outbreaks. Model calculations of I. typographus phenology and population dynamics as a function of weather and brood tree availability were developed and implemented in the LPJ-GUESS ecosystem modelling framework. The model simulations were driven by gridded climate data covering Sweden with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and a daily temporal resolution. Records on storm damage and I. typographus outbreak periods in Sweden for the period of 1960–2009 were used for model evaluation, and a sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the model behaviour. The model simulations replicated the observed pattern in outbreak frequency, being more common in southern and central Sweden than in northern Sweden. A warmer climate allowing for more than one generation per year can increase the risk for attacks on living trees. The effect of countermeasures, aiming at either reduce the availability of brood material or the I. typographus population size, is dependent on a non-linear relation between I. typographus attack density and reproductive success. The sensitivity analysis indicated a major reduction in the risk of attacks on living trees by timely salvage cutting and cutting of infested trees. Knowledge uncertainties associated with attacks on standing trees, i.e. factors influencing tree defence capacity and I. typographus reproductive success, should be further addressed.

Department/s

  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • Functional zoology
  • MERGE - ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
  • BECC - Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • Pheromone Group

Publishing year

2012

Language

English

Pages

188-200

Publication/Series

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Volume

166-167

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Elsevier

Topic

  • Zoology
  • Physical Geography

Keywords

  • Forest management
  • Climate change
  • LPJ-GUESS
  • Risk analysis

Status

Published

Project

  • Olfaction in bark beetles

Research group

  • Pheromone Group

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1873-2240