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Anders Ahlström

Anders Ahlström

Senior lecturer

Anders Ahlström

Recent changes in the global and regional carbon cycle: analysis of first-order diagnostics

Author

  • P. J. Rayner
  • A. Stavert
  • Marko Scholze
  • Anders Ahlström
  • C. E. Allison
  • R. M. Law

Summary, in English

We analyse global and regional changes in CO2 fluxes using two simple models, an airborne fraction of anthropogenic emissions and a linear relationship with CO2 concentrations. We show that both models are able to fit the non-anthropogenic (hereafter natural) flux over the length of the atmospheric concentration record. Analysis of the linear model (including its uncertainties) suggests no significant decrease in the response of the natural carbon cycle. Recent data points rather to an increase. We apply the same linear diagnostic to fluxes from atmospheric inversions. Flux responses show clear regional and seasonal patterns driven by terrestrial uptake in the northern summer. Ocean fluxes show little or no linear response. Terrestrial models show clear responses, agreeing globally with the inversion responses, however the spatial structure is quite different, with dominant responses in the tropics rather than the northern extratropics.

Department/s

  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate

Publishing year

2015

Language

English

Pages

835-844

Publication/Series

Biogeosciences

Volume

12

Issue

3

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Copernicus GmbH

Topic

  • Physical Geography

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1726-4189